Global Trends 2025

In the November 1, 2009 Salon article "America the superpower melts down," Michael Klare warns "American preeminence is disappearing 15 years early. Get ready to be an ordinary nation." (The article previously appeared at TomDispatch.com.)

Memo to the CIA: You may not be prepared for time travel, but welcome to 2025 anyway! Your rooms may be a little small, your ability to demand better accommodations may have gone out the window, and the amenities may not be to your taste, but get used to it. It's going to be your reality from now on.

OK, now for the serious version of the above: In November 2008, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), an affiliate of the Central Intelligence Agency, issued the latest in a series of futuristic publications intended to guide the incoming Obama administration. Peering into its analytic crystal ball in a report titled "Global Trends 2025," it predicted that America's global preeminence would gradually disappear over the next 15 years -- in conjunction with the rise of new global powerhouses, especially China and India. The report examined many facets of the future strategic environment, but its most startling, and news-making, finding concerned the projected long-term erosion of American dominance and the emergence of new global competitors. "Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor [in 2025]," it stated definitively, the country's "relative strength -- even in the military realm -- will decline and U.S. leverage will become more constrained."

That, of course, was then; this -- some 11 months into the future -- is now and how things have changed. Futuristic predictions will just have to catch up to the fast-shifting realities of the present moment. Although published after the onset of the global economic meltdown was under way, the report was written before the crisis reached its full proportions and so emphasized that the decline of American power would be gradual, extending over the assessment's 15-year time horizon. But the economic crisis and attendant events have radically upset that timetable. As a result of the mammoth economic losses suffered by the United States over the past year and China's stunning economic recovery, the global power shift the report predicted has accelerated. For all practical purposes, 2025 is here already.

Many of the broad, down-the-road predictions made in "Global Trends 2025" have, in fact, already come to pass. Brazil, Russia, India and China -- collectively known as the BRIC countries -- are already playing far more assertive roles in global economic affairs, as the report predicted would happen in perhaps a decade or so. At the same time, the dominant global role once monopolized by the United States with a helping hand from the major Western industrial powers -- collectively known as the Group of 7 (G-7) -- has already faded away at a remarkable pace. Countries that once looked to the United States for guidance on major international issues are ignoring Washington's counsel and instead creating their own autonomous policy networks. The United States is becoming less inclined to deploy its military forces abroad as rival powers increase their own capabilities and non-state actors rely on "asymmetrical" means of attack to overcome the U.S. advantage in conventional firepower.

No one seems to be saying this out loud -- yet -- but let's put it bluntly: less than a year into the 15-year span of "Global Trends 2025," the days of America's unquestioned global dominance have come to an end. It may take a decade or two (or three) before historians will be able to look back and say with assurance, "That was the moment when the United States ceased to be the planet's preeminent power and was forced to behave like another major player in a world of many competing great powers." The indications of this great transition, however, are there for those who care to look.

Six way stations on the road to ordinary nationhood

Here is my list of six recent developments that indicate we are entering "2025" today. All six were in the news in the last few weeks, even if never collected in a single place. They (and other events like them) represent a pattern: the shape, in fact, of a new age in formation.

1. At the global economic summit in Pittsburgh on Sept. 24 and 25, the leaders of the major industrial powers, the G-7 (G-8 if you include Russia), agreed to turn over responsibility for oversight of the world economy to a larger, more inclusive Group of 20 (G-20), adding in China, India, Brazil, Turkey and other developing nations. Although doubts have been raised about the ability of this larger group to exercise effective global leadership, there is no doubt that the move itself signaled a shift in the locus of world economic power from the West to the global East and South -- and with this shift, a seismic decline in America's economic preeminence has been registered.

"The G-20's true significance is not in the passing of a baton from the G-7/G-8 but from the G-1, the U.S.," Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University wrote in the Financial Times. "Even during the 33 years of the G-7 economic forum, the U.S. called the important economic shots." Declining American leadership over these last decades was obscured by the collapse of the Soviet Union and an early American lead in information technology, Sachs also noted, but there is now no mistaking the shifting of economic power from the United States to China and other rising economic dynamos.

2. According to news reports, America's economic rivals are conducting secret (and not-so-secret) meetings to explore a diminished role for the U.S. dollar -- fast losing its value -- in international trade. Until now, the use of the dollar as the international medium of exchange has given the United States a significant economic advantage: It can simply print dollars to meet its international obligations while other nations must convert their own currencies into dollars, often incurring significant added costs. Now, however, many major trading countries -- among them China, Russia, Japan, Brazil and the Persian Gulf oil countries -- are considering the use of the euro, or a "basket" of currencies, as a new medium of exchange. If adopted, such a plan would accelerate the dollar's precipitous fall in value and further erode American clout in international economic affairs.

One such discussion reportedly took place this summer at a summit meeting of the BRIC countries. Just a concept a year ago, when the very idea of BRIC was concocted by the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, the BRIC consortium became a flesh-and-blood reality this June when the leaders of the four countries held an inaugural meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia.

The very fact that Brazil, Russia, India and China chose to meet as a group was considered significant, as they jointly possess about 43 percent of the world's population and are expected to account for 33 percent of the world's gross domestic product by 2030 -- about as much as the United States and Western Europe will claim at that time. Although the BRIC leaders decided not to form a permanent body like the G-7 at this stage, they did agree to coordinate efforts to develop alternatives to the dollar and to reform the International Monetary Fund in such a way as to give non-Western countries a greater voice.

3. On the diplomatic front, Washington has been rebuffed by both Russia and China in its drive to line up support for increased international pressure on Iran to cease its nuclear enrichment program. One month after President Obama canceled plans to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system in Eastern Europe in an apparent bid to secure Russian backing for a tougher stance toward Tehran, top Russian leaders are clearly indicating that they have no intention of endorsing strong new sanctions on Iran. "Threats, sanctions, and threats of pressure in the current situation, we are convinced, would be counterproductive," declared the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, following a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Moscow on Oct. 13. The following day, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the threat of sanctions was "premature." Given the political risks Obama took in canceling the missile program -- a step widely condemned by Republicans in Washington -- Moscow's quick dismissal of U.S. pleas for cooperation on the Iranian enrichment matter can only be interpreted as a further sign of waning American influence.

4. Exactly the same inference can be drawn from a high-level meeting in Beijing on Oct. 15 between Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Iran's first vice president, Mohammed Reza Rahimi. "The Sino-Iran relationship has witnessed rapid development as the two countries' leaders have had frequent exchanges, and cooperation in trade and energy has widened and deepened," Wen said at the Great Hall of the People. Coming at a time when the United States is engaged in a vigorous diplomatic drive to persuade China and Russia, among others, to reduce their trade ties with Iran as a prelude to toughened sanctions, the Chinese statement can only be considered a pointed rebuff of Washington.

5. From Washington's point of view, efforts to secure international support for the allied war effort in Afghanistan have also met with a strikingly disappointing response. In what can only be considered a trivial and begrudging vote of support for the U.S.-led war effort, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on Oct. 14 that Britain would add more troops to the British contingent in that country -- but only 500 more, and only if other European nations increase their own military involvement, something he undoubtedly knows is highly unlikely. So far, this tiny, provisional contingent represents the sum total of additional troops the Obama administration has been able to pry out of America's European allies, despite a sustained diplomatic drive to bolster the combined NATO force in Afghanistan. In other words, even America's most loyal and obsequious ally in Europe no longer appears willing to carry the burden for what is widely seen as yet another costly and debilitating American military adventure in the Greater Middle East.

6. Finally, in a move of striking symbolic significance, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) passed over Chicago (as well as Madrid and Tokyo) to pick Rio de Janeiro to be the host of the 2016 summer Olympics, the first time a South American nation was selected for the honor. Until the Olympic vote took place, Chicago was considered a strong contender, especially since former Chicago resident Barack Obama personally appeared in Copenhagen to lobby the IOC. Nonetheless, in a development that shocked the world, Chicago not only lost out, but was the city eliminated in the very first round of voting.

"Brazil went from a second-class country to a first-class country, and today we began to receive the respect we deserve," said Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at a victory celebration in Copenhagen after the vote. "I could die now and it already would have been worth it." Few said so, but in the course of the Olympic decision-making process the U.S. was summarily and pointedly demoted from sole superpower to instant also-ran, a symbolic moment on a planet entering a new age.

On being an ordinary country

These are only a few examples of recent developments that indicate, to this author, that the day of America's global preeminence has already come to an end, years before the American intelligence community expected. It's increasingly clear that other powers -- even our closest allies -- are increasingly pursuing independent foreign policies, no matter what pressure Washington tries to bring to bear.

Of course, none of this means that, for some time to come, the U.S. won't retain the world's largest economy and, in terms of sheer destructiveness, its most potent military force. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the strategic environment in which American leaders must make critical decisions, when it comes to the nation's vital national interests, has changed dramatically since the onset of the global economic crisis.

Even more important, President Obama and his senior advisers are, it seems, reluctantly beginning to reshape U.S. foreign policy with the new global reality in mind. This appears evident, for example, in the administration's decision to revisit U.S. strategy on Afghanistan.

It was only in March, after all, that the president embraced a new counterinsurgency-oriented strategy in that country, involving a buildup of U.S. boots on the ground and a commitment to protracted efforts to win hearts and minds in Afghan villages where the Taliban was resurgent. It was on this basis that he fired the incumbent Afghan war commander, Gen. David D. McKiernan, replacing him with Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, considered a more vigorous proponent of counterinsurgency. When, however, McChrystal presented Obama with the price tag for the implementation of this strategy -- 40,000 to 80,000 additional troops (over and above the 20,000-odd extra troops only recently committed to the fight) -- many in the president's inner circle evidently blanched.

Not only will such a large deployment cost the U.S. Treasury hundreds of billions of dollars it can ill afford, but the strains it is likely to place on the Army and Marine Corps are likely to be little short of unbearable after years of multiple tours and stress in Iraq. This price would be more tolerable, of course, if America's allies would take up more of the burden, but they are ever less willing to do so.

Undoubtedly, the leaders of Russia and China are not entirely unhappy to see the United States exhaust its financial and military resources in Afghanistan. Under these circumstances, it is hardly surprising that Vice President Joe Biden, among others, is calling for a new turn in U.S. policy, forgoing a counterinsurgency approach and opting instead for a less costly "counter-terrorism" strategy aimed, in part, at crushing al-Qaida in Pakistan -- using drone aircraft and Special Forces, rather than large numbers of U.S. troops (while leaving troop levels in Afghanistan relatively unchanged).

It is too early to predict how the president's review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan will play out, but the fact that he did not immediately embrace the McChrystal plan and has allowed Biden such free rein to argue his case suggests that he may be coming to recognize the folly of expanding America's military commitments abroad at a time when its global preeminence is waning.

One senses Obama's caution in other recent moves. Although he continues to insist that the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran is impermissible and that the use of force to prevent this remains an option, he has clearly moved to minimize the likelihood that this option -- which would also be plagued by recalcitrant "allies" -- will ever be employed.

On the other side of the coin, he has given fresh life to American diplomacy, seeking improved ties with Moscow and approving renewed diplomatic contact with such previously pariah states as Burma, Sudan and Syria. This, too, reflects a reality of our changing world: that the holier-than-thou, bullying stance adopted by the Bush administration toward these and other countries for almost eight years rarely achieved anything. Think of it as an implicit acknowledgment that the U.S. is now descending from its status as the globe's "sole superpower" to that of an ordinary country. This, after all, is what ordinary countries do; they engage other countries in diplomatic discourse, whether they like their current governments or not.

So, welcome to the world of 2025. It doesn't look like the world of our recent past, when the United States stood head and shoulders above all other nations in stature, and it doesn't comport well with Washington's fantasies of global power since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. But it is reality.

For many Americans, the loss of that preeminence may be a source of discomfort, or even despair. On the other hand, don't forget the advantages to being an ordinary country like any other country: Nobody expects Canada, or France, or Italy to send another 40,000 troops to Afghanistan, on top of the 68,000 already there and the 120,000 still in Iraq. Nor does anyone expect those countries to spend $925 billion in taxpayer money to do so -- the current estimated cost of both wars, according to the National Priorities Project.

The question remains: How much longer will Washington feel that Americans can afford to subsidize a global role that includes garrisoning much of the planet and fighting distant wars in the name of global security, when the American economy is losing so much ground to its competitors? This is the dilemma President Obama and his advisers must confront in the altered world of 2025.

Iceland says goodbye to the Big Mac

In the October 26, 2009 article "Iceland says goodbye to the Big Mac," Associated Press writers Gudjon Helgason and Jane Wardell report that economic conditions are causing the closure of Iceland's three McDonald's restaurants.

REYKJAVIK, Iceland – The Big Mac, long a symbol of globalization, has become the latest victim of this tiny island nation's overexposure to the world financial crisis.

Iceland's three McDonald's restaurants — all in the capital Reykjavik — will close next weekend, as the franchise owner gives in to falling profits caused by the collapse in the Icelandic krona.

"The economic situation has just made it too expensive for us," Magnus Ogmundsson, the managing director of Lyst Hr., McDonald's franchise holder in Iceland, told the Associated Press by telephone on Monday.

Lyst was bound by McDonald's requirement that it import all the goods required for its restaurants — from packaging to meat and cheeses — from Germany.

Costs had doubled over the past year because of the fall in the krona and high import tariffs on imported goods, Ogmundsson said, making it impossible for the company to raise prices further and remain competitive with competitors that use locally sourced produce.

A Big Mac in Reykjavik already retails for 650 krona ($5.29). But the 20 percent increase needed to make a decent profit would have pushed that to 780 krona ($6.36), he said.

That would have made the Icelandic version of the burger the most expensive in the world, a title currently held jointly by Switzerland and Norway where it costs $5.75, according to The Economist magazine's 2009 Big Mac index.

The decision to shutter the Icelandic franchise was taken in agreement with McDonald's Inc., Ogmundsson said, after a review of several months.

McDonald's, the world's largest chain of hamburger fast food restaurants, arrived in Reykjavik in 1993 when the country was on an upward trajectory of wealth and expansion.

The first person to take a bite out of a Big Mac on the island was then Prime Minister David Oddsson. Oddsson went on to become governor of the country's central bank, Sedlabanki, a position that he was forced out of by lawmakers earlier this year after a public outcry about his inability to prevent the financial crisis.

Lyst plans to reopen the stores under a new brand name, Metro, using locally sourced materials and produce and retaining the franchise's current 90-strong staff.

Ogmundsson said it was unlikely that Lyst would ever seek to regain the McDonald's franchise with Iceland still struggling to get back on its feet after the credit crisis crippled its overweight banking system, damaging the rest of its economy, last October.

"I don't think anything will happen that will change the situation in any significant way in the next few years," Ogmundsson said.

It is not the first time that McDonald's, which currently operates in more than 119 countries on six continents, has exited a country. Its one and only restaurant in Barbados closed after just six months in 1996 because of slow sales. In 2002, the company pulled out of seven countries, including Bolivia, that had poor profit margins as part of an international cost-cutting exercise.

Examples of Good Mind Maps

The following two mind maps were created by students in John Budd's labor relations course at the University of Minnesota.

This mind map illustrates a moment in the history of labor unions:
(Click the image to enlarge it.)

This mind map summarizes the diverse impacts of labor unions:
(Click the image to enlarge it.)

A good mind map will:
*use different colors to represent different branches;
*illustrate the maps with images; and
*use single words because phrases or full sentences can limit their ability to create associations.
(Avoid full sentences. Phrases are acceptable if a single word does not express the concept effectively.)

A darker side of Columbus emerges in US classrooms

In the October 11, 2009 article "A darker side of Columbus emerges in US classrooms," Associated Press writer Christine Armario reports:

TAMPA, Fla. – Jeffrey Kolowith's kindergarten students read a poem about Christopher Columbus, take a journey to the New World on three paper ships and place the explorer's picture on a timeline through history.

Kolowith's students learn about the explorer's significance — though they also come away with a more nuanced picture of Columbus than the noble discoverer often portrayed in pop culture and legend.

"I talk about the situation where he didn't even realize where he was," Kolowith said. "And we talked about how he was very, very mean, very bossy."

Columbus' stature in U.S. classrooms has declined somewhat through the years, and many districts will not observe his namesake holiday on Monday. Although lessons vary, many teachers are trying to present a more balanced perspective of what happened after Columbus reached the Caribbean and the suffering of indigenous populations.

"The whole terminology has changed," said James Kracht, executive associate dean for academic affairs in the Texas A&M College of Education and Human Development. "You don't hear people using the world 'discovery' anymore like they used to. 'Columbus discovers America.' Because how could he discover America if there were already people living here?"

In Texas, students start learning in the fifth grade about the "Columbian Exchange" — which consisted not only of gold, crops and goods shipped back and forth across the Atlantic Ocean, but diseases carried by settlers that decimated native populations.

In McDonald, Pa., 30 miles southwest of Pittsburgh, fourth-grade students at Fort Cherry Elementary put Columbus on trial this year — charging him with misrepresenting the Spanish crown and thievery. They found him guilty and sentenced him to life in prison.

"In their own verbiage, he was a bad guy," teacher Laurie Crawford said.

Of course, the perspective given varies across classrooms and grades. Donna Sabis-Burns, a team leader with the U.S. Department of Education's School Support and Technology Program, surveyed teachers nationwide about the Columbus reading materials they used in class for her University of Florida dissertation. She examined 62 picture books, and found the majority were outdated and contained inaccurate — and sometimes outright demeaning — depictions of the native Taino population.

The federal holiday itself also is not universally recognized. Schools in Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles and Seattle will be open; New York City, Washington and Chicago schools will be closed.

The day is an especially sensitive issue in places with larger native American populations.

"We have a very large Alaska native population, so just the whole Columbus being the founder of the United States, doesn't sit well with a lot of people, myself included," said Paul Prussing, deputy director of Alaska's Division of Teaching and Learning Support.

Many recall decades ago when there was scant mention of indigenous groups in discussions about Columbus. Kracht remembers a picture in one of his fifth-grade textbooks that showed Columbus wading to shore with a huge flag and cross.

"The indigenous population was kind of waiting expectantly, almost with smiles on their faces," Kracht said. "'I wonder what this guy is bringing us?' Well, he's bringing us smallpox, for one thing, and none of us are going to live very long."

Kracht said an emerging multiculturalism led more people to investigate the cruelties suffered by the Taino population in the 1960s and '70s, along with the 500th anniversary in 1992.

However, there are people who believe the discussion has shifted too far. Patrick Korten, vice president of communications for the Catholic fraternal service organization the Knights of Columbus, recalled a note from a member who saw a lesson at a New Jersey school.

The students were forced to stand in a cafeteria and not allowed to eat while other students teased and intimidated them — apparently so they could better understand the suffering indigenous populations endured because of Columbus, Korten said.

"My impression is that in some classrooms, it's anything but a balanced presentation," Korten, said. "That it's deliberately very negative, which is a matter of great concern because that is not accurate."

Korten said he doesn't believe such activities are widespread — though the lessons will certainly vary.

In Kolowith's Tampa class, students gathered around a white carpet, where they examined a pile of bright plastic fruits and vegetables, baby dolls, construction paper and other items as they decided what would be best for their voyage.

"Do you think it would be good to take babies on a long and dangerous boat ride?" he asked the class. "No!" they replied.

Fifteen miles away, in Seffner, Fla., Colson Elementary assistant principal Jack Keller visited students in a colonial outfit and gray wig, pretending to be Columbus and discussing his voyages. The suffering of natives was not mentioned.

"Our thing was to show exploration," he said.

Meanwhile, Crawford's Pennsylvania class dressed up as characters from the era, assigned roles for a mock trial and put Columbus on the stand. Out of a jury of 12 students, nine found him guilty of the charges.

"Every hero is somebody else's villain," said Felipe Fernandez-Armesto, a scholar and author of several books related to Columbus, including "1492: The Year the World Began."

"Heroism and villainy are just two sides of the same coin."

Names for U.S. citizens

"Names for U.S. citizens" from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

Different languages use different terms for citizens of the United States, the people known in English as Americans. All forms of English refer to these people as "Americans", derived from "The United States of America", but there is some linguistic ambiguity over this due to the other senses of the word American, which can also refer to people from the Americas in general. Many other languages use cognates of "American" to refer to people from the United States, but others, particularly Spanish, primarily use terms derived from "United States". There are various other local and colloquial names for Americans.

Development of the term

The adjective "American" originally referred to the landmass known as the Americas or America. "Americans" originally referred to the indigenous peoples of the Americas, and later to European settlers and their descendants. English use of the term "American" for people of European descent dates to the 17th century; the earliest recorded appearance is in Thomas Gage's The English-American: A New Survey of the West Indies in 1648. "American" especially applied to people in British America, and thus its use as a demonym for the United States derives by extension.

The United States Declaration of Independence of 1776 refers to "the thirteen united States of America", making the first formal use of the country name; the name was officially adopted by the nation's first governing constitution, the Articles of Confederation, in 1777. The Federalist Papers of 1787-1788, written by Alexander Hamilton, John Jay, and James Madison to advocate the ratification of the United States Constitution, use the word "American" in both its original, Pan-American sense, but also in its United States sense: Federalist Paper 24 refers to the "American possessions" of Britain and Spain, i.e. land outside of the United States, while Federalist Papers 51 and 70 refer to the United States as "the American republic". People from the United States increasingly referred to themselves as "Americans" through the end of the 18th century; the 1795 Treaty of Peace and Amity with the Barbary States refers to "American Citizens", and George Washington spoke to his people of "[t]he name of American, which belongs to you in your national capacity…" in his 1796 farewell address. Eventually, this usage spread through other English-speaking countries; the unqualified noun "American" now chiefly refers to natives or citizens of the United States in all forms of the English language. Although "American" may refer to all inhabitants of the continent, this is generally specified with a qualifier such as "Latin American" or "North American."

International use

International speakers of English refer to people from the United States as "Americans", while cognates of "American" are used in many other languages. French, German, Dutch, Italian, Japanese, Chinese, Hebrew, Arabic, and Russian speakers use cognates of American (Japanese: アメリカ人 roma-ji: amerika-jin), (Russian: американец, американка,) (Mandarin Chinese: pinyin- měiguórén, traditional- 美國人, simplified- 美国人) to refer to U.S. citizens. Spanish and Portuguese, however, chiefly use terms derived from Estados Unidos, the cognate of "United States" – estadounidense and estadunidense, respectively. The same linguistic ambiguity that occurs in English use of the term "American" occurs in the other European languages: to compensate for this, French (predominantly Quebec French) and Italian speakers may refer to U.S. citizens respectively as états-unien and statunitense, though this is less common, and German speakers may distinguish an Amerikaner as a U.S.-Amerikaner. This confusion is also present in Portuguese, as people from the United States may alternatively be referred to as americanos in that language. However, in Spanish, americano chiefly refers to all people from the Western Hemisphere, and using it in the United States sense may be considered offensive; the Diccionario Panhispánico de Dudas de la Real Academia Española advises against using it in this sense.

Alternate terms

The only officially and commonly used alternative for referring to the people of the United States in English is to refer to them as citizens of that country. "Yankee" (or "Yank") is a common colloquial term for Americans in English; cognates can be found in other languages. While "Yankee" may refer to people specifically from New England or the Northern United States, it has been applied to Americans generally since the 18th century, especially by the British. The earliest recorded use in this context is in a letter by Horatio Nelson in 1784. The word "gringo", often used pejoratively, is common in Spanish and has entered into other languages including English, in which language it is recorded as early as 1871. More generically, they may be specified as "U.S. Americans". Several single-word English alternatives for "American" have been suggested over time, including "Usonian", popularized by Frank Lloyd Wright, and the nonce term "United-Statesian". The writer H. L. Mencken collected a number of proposals from between 1789 and 1939, finding terms including "Columbian, Columbard, Fredonian, Frede, Unisian, United Statesian, Colonican, Appalacian, Usian, Washingtonian, Usonian, Uessian, U-S-ian, Uesican, United Stater." Nevertheless no alternative to "American" is common.

Spanish and Portuguese speakers may refer to people from the United States as norteamericanos and norte-americanos respectively ("North Americans"), though this term can also include Canadians and sometimes Mexicans. The fact that citizens of the United States call themselves "Americans" causes discomfort for many Latin Americans, who see it as an appropriation of the collective identity of all peoples and countries of the Western Hemisphere. However, this usage has historical roots. Other languages which optionally distinguish the two uses include Japanese, French, Finnish, Italian, and Navajo. Other languages, such as Chinese, Korean, Swahili, Vietnamese, and Esperanto, have different terms for U.S. citizens and people from the Americas.

Retrieved October 8, 2009.

See also:
Santos, Luis Claudio (March 2006). "American, United Statian, USAmerican, or Gringos?". AmeriQuests 2 (1).

The power of China's big checkbook

In the October 7, 2009 article "Amid the global economic crisis, China rises," Associated Press business writer Joe McDonald reports:

BEIJING – The auto-parts maker Delphi Corp. is headquartered in Troy, Mich., in the heart of the region that made the United States the car capital of the world. It's a place where the phrase "buy American" is right at home.

Now the 3,000 employees of Delphi's brake and suspension unit are getting a new boss. Battered by weak sales, Delphi is selling the unit to investors led by a company named Shougang Corp.

Shougang is a steel maker owned by the government of China — a government that calls itself communist but espouses a "socialist market economy" as it marches down globalization's road toward a capitalistic future.

"Everyone's so desperate for cash that the Chinese show up with a checkbook and people say, `Yes, please'," says Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, a Beijing research firm.

Explosive growth in China and India, coupled with Japan's clout as the world's No. 2 economy, has long been expected to shift economic power from the United States to Asia as this century progresses. The financial crisis and resulting Great Recession are accelerating that process.

"China certainly comes out of the crisis stronger rather than weaker, and it's the opposite for the United States," says Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.

Even some Americans have begun declaring this the "Chinese century" since it began nearly a decade ago. But while they and others fear the rise of China in international relations and the global economy, the reality is less dramatic: Beijing is still getting its own sprawling, chaotic house in order and is in no position to supplant the United States as global leader in the near future.

At the same time, Beijing's power remains undefined: On an unfamiliar global stage, it is unsure what role it wants to play.

For decades, China followed the dictum of its late supreme leader, Deng Xiaoping, to keep its head down abroad and focus on development at home. But earlier this decade, emboldened by success and mindful that their globalized economy needs stability, communist leaders started pressing for a place among the nations that manage world affairs.

These days, Beijing is claiming a bigger voice in global economic forums such as the Group of 20 and is getting more deference in the United Nations, which could mean protection for friends such as Iran and Myanmar. Its military spending is the world's second-highest, behind that of the United States.

"China is very likely to be the second-most-powerful country — if it isn't now, then within a decade," says Kenneth Lieberthal, director of the Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center in Washington.

For the United States, it's a mixed blessing. The American and Chinese economies are intertwined, and the success of one depends on the health of the other.

The United States is China's biggest trade partner. China sent $338 billion in goods here last year. Beijing is Washington's biggest creditor, with more than $800 billion invested in government debt. American automakers look to China's growing market to propel future sales.

The financial crisis set back U.S. growth by years and will add trillions to the federal debt over the next decade. But China avoided the worst of the crisis. Its banks are healthy and, with the help of a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus, this year's economic growth is on track to top 8 percent.

Already, demand from China can affect oil prices, and it is starting to influence what products are available worldwide. Western jobs are tied to Chinese spending, from British auto factories to Australian iron mines. Chinese money is financing development of oil fields from Venezuela to Central Asia.

And China's role as Washington's lender-in-chief is altering the dynamic of the countries' relationship.

At a meeting in London in April, President Barack Obama assured his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, that Washington would cut its budget deficit — a promise no American leader ever had to make to a Soviet leader.

Washington's three-year-old strategic dialogue with Beijing has long been dominated by U.S. trade grievances. But the latest round in July, overshadowed by America's need for China to keep buying its debt, became a discussion between equals.

China, a major destination for foreign investment, was starting to reverse the flow and invest abroad before the financial crisis. The crisis accelerated that and has led to a flurry of deals. In some cases, Chinese companies have stepped in to save Western jobs — a notion unthinkable a decade ago.

In Britain, China's Nanjing Automobile Group plans to reopen the Longbridge factory idled by the collapse of MG Rover to make limited-edition MGTF sports cars. And in Sweden, Beijing Automotive is joining a bid to buy Saab from General Motors, while Geely Automobile wants to acquire Ford's Volvo unit.

"It's better to be part of the race than to watch it from the stands," says Paul Akerlund, a union representative at Saab. "We see advantages in gaining access to the Chinese market, which is the fastest-growing auto market in the world."

In diplomacy, China is only starting to stake out positions on a wide array of global issues. It has used its influence in the United Nations to help allies such as Sri Lanka resist Western pressure on human rights. But Chinese leaders have yet to decide what overall political and military role they want abroad.

"They clearly want to be a country of some gravitas both regionally and globally," Lieberthal says. "But there are a lot of aspects of the American approach — too ready to interfere, to tell others what to do — that the Chinese criticize as `hegemonic.'"

Even as it is on track to overtake the American economy in size as early as 2030, China is burdened by enormous problems of corruption, poverty and pollution. Measured by income per person, China ranked 130th out of 210 economies in a World Bank survey last year, behind most of Latin America and parts of Africa.

"China's foreign currency reserves are huge. But that does not mean we are a rich country," says Cho Tak Wong, chairman of Fuyao Group, which produces glass for Chinese and global automakers. "We are about 100 years behind the United States."

China also has become a fast-growing market, and the financial crisis has only increased its importance to global companies.
Chinese demand affects everything from global steel prices to the design of consumer goods. Cadillac created its 2008 CTS with China in mind, adding a deeper back seat for Chinese buyers driven by chauffeurs.

Other countries' urgent need for cash has created opportunities for Beijing to make deals for resources to drive its booming economy. State companies have struck oil deals in Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Africa and bought stakes in Australian and Canadian miners.

Delphi turned to Chinese buyers for its remaining brake and suspension operations after it sought bankruptcy court protection four years ago. The buyers are Shougang and two partners — the Beijing city government and an auto-parts maker, Tempo Group. Delphi says the $90 million sale should close in November, seven months after it was announced.

Contrast that with 2005, when Chinese oil company CNOOC Ltd. tried to acquired Unocal Corp. CNOOC offered to pay more than a rival American bidder but withdrew after critics in Washington said the sale might threaten U.S. energy security.

Still, the United States has many strengths that China lacks. The U.S. remains the world center for innovation in many areas and a magnet for smart, ambitious immigrants.

"Europeans may hope that the U.S. has been knocked down a peg or two, but even if that is so, they could be in for a nasty surprise," says Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC Partners, a London brokerage. "Never underestimate the ability of the American people to rise to a challenge."

Peak Oil - A Mind Map

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Science of Global Warming - A Mind Map

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International Trade - A Mind Map

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Globalization - A Mind Map

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Globalization - A Mind Map

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Protectionism versus Free Trade - A Mind Map

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Farmers create chaos with spilled milk in Brussels

In the October 5, 2009 article "Farmers create chaos with spilled milk in Brussels," Associated Press writer Raf Casert reports that the European Union's transition to freer agricultural markets (by reducing price supports and other government interventions) is inciting protests by financially injured farmers:

BRUSSELS – Farmers drove hundreds of tractors and a lone cow to the heart of the European Union bureaucracy on Monday, pelting police with bottles and chickens and dumping milk and manure onto the streets of Brussels in a protest against collapsing milk prices.

Over 2,500 farmers from across the EU burned tires and hay outside an emergency meeting of farm ministers.

They sprayed milk from huge canisters, and the cow's udder, on a square close to the meeting. The jittery cow was frightened by firecrackers, sprang loose and chased an office worker down the street before it was recaptured by the farmers.

The farmers used heavy tractors to block major highways into Brussels and streets in the urban center, creating traffic chaos for dozens of miles outside the city for much of the day, keeping tens of thousands of commuters moving at a snail's pace.

Farmers' demonstrations have often been violent in the past and there was a massive police presence that further choked roads throughout the capital.

Officers prevented the farmers from getting too close to the meeting and there was no major violence.

The farmers' major demand — limiting production through quotas to drive up prices — met with no success. EU officials said they still intend to gradually create freer markets for European farm products.

"There will be no backtracking," said EU Farm Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel.

Farmers want regulation to shield them from market fluctuations and have been protesting for weeks, arguing production costs are currently up to twice as high as market prices. They have dumped tens of millions of gallons (liters) of milk into streets and fields to highlight their plight.

"If there is no change by this winter, I will have to stop milking," said Belgian farmer Richard Patrice. "Every day I lose money. It is as if every morning I wake up and I burn a 50 euro ($73) bill."

World's best countries to live in

The October 5, 2009 article "Norway is best place to live, China moves up: UN" reports on the United Nations' rankings of the best countries in which to live:

PARIS (AFP) – Norway takes the number one spot in the annual United Nations human development index released Monday but China has made the biggest strides in improving the well-being of its citizens.

The index compiled by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) ranks 182 countries based on such criteria as life expectancy, literacy, school enrolment and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

Norway, Australia and Iceland took the first three spots while Niger ranks at the very bottom, just below Afghanistan.

China moved up seven places on the list to rank as the 92nd most developed country due to improvements in education as well as income levels and life expectancy.

Colombia and Peru rose five spaces to rank 77th and 78th while France -- which was not part of the top 10 last year -- returns to the upper echelons by moving up three places to number 8.

The UNDP said the index highlights the grave disparities between rich and poor countries.

A child born in Niger can expect to live to just over 50, which is 30 years less than a child born in Norway. For every dollar a person earns in Niger, 85 dollars are earned in Norway.

This year's index was based on data from 2007 and does not take into account the impact of the global economic crisis.

"Many countries have experienced setbacks over recent decades, in the face of economic downturns, conflict-related crises and the HIV and AIDS epidemic," said the UN development report's author Jeni Klugman.

"And this was even before the impact of the current global financial crisis was felt."

Afghanistan, which returns to the list for the first time since 1996, is the only Asian country among the bottom ten which also include Sierra Leone in the 180th spot, just below the Central African Republic.

The top ten countries listed on the index are: Norway, Australia, Iceland, Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, Switzerland and Japan.

The United States ranks 13th, down one spot from last year.

McDonald's restaurants to open at the Louvre

In the October 4, 2009 Telegraph article "McDonald's restaurants to open at the Louvre," Henry Samuel says "It is a move which has managed to get both France's art lovers and gastronomes choking on their Gitanes."

Lovers of France's two great symbols of cultural exception – its haute cuisine and fine art – are aghast at plans to open a McDonald's restaurant and McCafé in the Louvre museum next month.

America's fast food temple is celebrating its 30th anniversary in France with a coup -the opening of its 1,142nd Gallic outlet a few yards from the entrance to the country's Mecca of high art and the world's most visited museum.

The chain faces a groundswell of discontent among museum staff, many already unhappy about the Louvre lending its name and works to a multi-million pound museum project in Abu Dhabi.

"This is the last straw," said one art historian working at the Louvre, who declined to be named. "This is the pinnacle of exhausting consumerism, deficient gastronomy and very unpleasant odours in the context of a museum," he told the Daily Telegraph.

Didier Rykner, head of The Art Tribune website found the idea "shocking".

"I'm not against eating in a museum but McDonald's is hardly the height of gastronomy," he said, adding that it was a worrying mixture of art and consumerism. "Today McDonald's, tomorrow low-cost clothes shops," he said.

McDonald's confirmed that a restaurant will open next month. The Louvre confirmed it will be positioned in the underground approach to the Louvre, known as the Carrousel du Louvre.

The stonewalled gallery was opened in 1993, five years after the famous Louvre pyramid. The Carrousel's initial remit stipulated that its "commercial activities will be regulated and restricted to cultural or tourist activities".

The Louvre has the right to protest against boutiques it considers fail to meet such criteria. However, the museum told the Daily Telegraph it had agreed to a "quality" McCafé and a McDonald's in place by the end of the year, which it said was "is in line with the museum's image".

"The Louvre welcomes the fact that the entirety of visitors and customers, French or foreign, can enjoy such a rich and varied restaurant offer, whether in the museum area or gallery," the museum said in a statement.

The McDonald's would represent the "American" segment " of a new "food court", and would be situated "among (other) world cuisines and coffee shops," it wrote.

It added that the franchise owner "has taken the utmost care in ensuring the quality of the project, both in culinary and aesthetic terms".

Louvre Pour Tous, a website whose aim is to "inform and defend" museum visitors, said: "Henri Loyrette, president of the Louvre museum just had to say one word to stop the whiff of French fries from wafting past the Mona Lisa's nose. He chose otherwise."

There was already an outcry last year when Starbucks opened a café perilously close to the Right bank museum's entrance. Employees and art aficionados sent management a petition in protest; the café opened regardless but was asked to provide a cultural corner of brochures and catalogues as a placatory measure.

"Starbucks was bad enough but McDonald's is worse," said the Louvre art historian.

A new ticket hall is due to be built in the next three years by the site of the new McDonald's to cope with the eight million annual visitors.

"Once this happens, the first thing visitors will likely see when they arrive are big golden arches," he said.

Many in France view "McDo" as the Trojan horse of globalisation and the scourge of local produce and long lunches.

José Bové, the mustachioed anti-GM crusader shot to fame after bulldozing a McDonald's in 1999 to protest against malbouffe (junk food).

However, even if there were a last-minute u-turn at the Louvre, statistics suggest the battle of Le Big Macs has already been lost. France has become McDonald's biggest market in the world outside of the US, according to the chain. While business in traditional brasseries and bistros is in freefall, the fast food group opened 30 new outlets last year in France and welcomed 450 million customers – up 11 per cent on the previous year.

Former McDonald's director plans to commercialise Italy's cultural heritage

In the October 3, 2009 Telegraph article "Former McDonald's director plans to commercialise Italy's cultural heritage," Nick Squires reports "It is an inconvenient truth that no visitor to Italy can fail to notice – that the country most blessed with archeological and artistic treasures often seems least able to look after them."

For the tourist who has been left aghast by the drifts of litter which choke the Roman Forum or graffiti on Florence's Renaissance bridges and buildings or the incomprehensible signage at any number of monuments and museums, salvation may now be at hand.

A former director of McDonald's is putting the finishing touches to a master plan which he hopes will dramatically improve the fortunes of Italy's 3,600 government-run museums and archaeological sites and achieve double-digit growth in visitor numbers and revenue.

The Herculean task to which Mario Resca has pledged himself, as general director of Italian museums, is part of a realisation that Italy has rested on its laurels for too long.

It is also a reflection of the grim fact that as Italian industry struggles to compete with cheap labour in China, India and elsewhere, the country must look to its extraordinary cultural repository to create the jobs and wealth of the future.

"For Italy, the era of factories is over," Mr Resca, 64, told The Sunday Telegraph this week in Milan, the engine of the Italian economic miracle of the 1950s and 1960s.

"Our future must lie in cultural tourism. Italy has a huge coastline but we can't even rely on that any more – there is much cleaner water in places like the Maldives. Beaches are everywhere in the world; what is not everywhere is Italy's heritage. In cultural terms, we are a world power."

Of the world's top 10 most visited museums, not one is Italian (the Vatican Museums ranked in the top 10, but they lie outside Italian territory).

While the Louvre attracts eight-and-a-half million visitors a year, and the British Museum five million, the Uffizi in Florence pulls in a paltry one and a half million.

Mr Resca's McDonald's background meant his appointment was controversial but he says he has now brought many of his critics round by touring the country's museums and listening to concerns.

"I see visitors as customers, clients. When you come to one of my museums, you are a guest and your needs should be satisfied. I want double-digit growth in visitor numbers," he said.

He wants clearer explanation of what visitors are seeing, better services including museum cafes (not necessarily McDonald's, he stresses) and cheery, welcoming staff, instead of the curmudgeons who have given some Italian museums a bad name.

Changing the way museums and monuments are funded is another top priority. "Until now the revenue from ticket sales went into a big central government pot instead of to the Culture Ministry," he said. "Museums had no control over their budgets. If a light bulb broke, they'd have to apply for funds to buy a new one. It was totally devoid of common sense. People told me, 'but it's always been like that'. That's going to have to change."

Mr Resca wants to use flagship attractions such as the Colosseum and Herculaneum to pay their own way by making them available to companies for private events.

The idea may elicit gasps of horror from some aesthetes, but Mr Resca insists that as long as care is taken not to damage the venues, there is no reason why such public-private partnerships cannot succeed.

The government has announced that over the next three years it will cut the Culture Ministry's budget by £850m. Only by offering the floodlit backdrop of the Roman Forum, for instance, to launch a car or a new line in cosmetics, can Italy's cultural treasures attempt to claw back some of the funds they have lost.

Italy has also been desperately slow to capitalise on marketing opportunities.

"You go to the Louvre and you find Mona Lisa T-shirts, Mona Lisa fridge magnets, Mona Lisa spoons. And the Mona Lisa is Italian! The French do marketing much better than us," said Mr Resca, noting that Paris has given permission for a McDonald's to open up inside the Louvre.

Cultural purists in Italy may fear the beginning of an era of McDonatellos and tawdry commercialisation under Mr Resca's five-year term, but with the nation's cultural treasures in such a dire state, many of his critics are prepared to give his ideas the benefit of the doubt, for now.

World unemployment rising; rates, responses vary

In the October 2, 2009 article "World unemployment rising; rates, responses vary," Associated Press business writer Emma Vandore reports:

PARIS – Unemployment is rising around the world as the recession leaves few corners untouched — but sharp differences remain between companies directly hit by financial or housing-market collapses and those that have deliberately protected jobs with expensive measures — including subsidizing shorter working weeks.

Unemployment rates in the 30 wealthy countries that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development range from a low of 3.2 percent in the Netherlands to 17.6 percent in Spain, according to July figures.

In the developing world, the downturn has also taken its toll. Unemployment in Brazil appears now to be easing a bit, but Mexico in August posted its highest jobless rate in 13 years. In Africa, the continent's largest economy, South Africa, is in the grips of its first recession in 17 years and about a quarter of the population is officially without work.

The U.S. unemployment rate was 9.4 percent in July, above the European Union rate of 8.8 percent. By August, the U.S unemployment rate had ticked up to 9.7 percent, a 26-year high. On Friday, the Labor Department is due to release data for September and economists are forecasting the rate edged up to 9.8 percent. Most economists see U.S. unemployment topping 10 percent by early next year.

The speed of the increase in unemployment rates also varies, with countries like France starting with relatively high unemployment and shifting only slightly upward, and Britain and Ireland starting low but rising fast.

"There are quite significant differences across countries and regions," said John Martin, head of the OECD's employment, labor and social affairs division. "Quite a number of the countries which so far have not seen major increases in unemployment were countries that either have expanded short-time working schemes or introduced them in the first places."

But he noted such programs — where workers agree to fewer hours and the government helps make up the difference in their pay — may not be affordable for much longer.

The OECD expects the jobless rate in its 30 members to approach 10 percent in the second half of next year, meaning 57 million people out of work. If forecasts are correct, about half of those would have joined the jobless lines in the three years from the start of the downturn to the end of 2010.

Stefano Scarpetta, head of employment analysis at the OECD, said that the U.S. is historically quicker at reducing unemployment after a shock than Europe. But still, he said it could take three years or longer for the U.S. to return to pre-crisis levels.

Here is a look at unemployment rates around the world:

GERMANY — Unemployment edged up this year to 7.7 percent in July from an annual rate of 7.3 percent in 2008, but that was down from 8.4 percent in 2007, according to harmonized OECD data. Employment has been kept in check so far by government financial support for workers put on shorter hours in order to avoid mass layoffs.

FRANCE — The increase in French jobless lines has been somewhat tempered by short-work arrangements and government incentives such as exempting payroll taxes for some workers. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent in July from 7.8 in 2008, according to the OECD. It is expected to hit 10 percent by the end of the year.

BRITAIN — Unemployment hit a nearly 13-year high of 7.9 percent in July. The number of people out of work looks on course to pass the three million mark next year as the impact of the recession translates to rising dole queues. However, the number losing their jobs has fallen from spring highs.

SPAIN — Spain has gone from being a European model for growth, creating more than a third of all new euro-zone jobs over the past decade, to having the region's highest unemployment rate. This stems mainly from the collapse of a construction boom and a credit-fueled consumer spending spree over the past two years.

The OECD charts the rise in unemployment as moving from 8.3 percent in 2007 to 11.3 percent in 2008 and 17.6 percent this July.

IRELAND — The story is similar in Ireland, where unemployment has surged from 4.6 percent in 2007 to 6 percent in 2008 and 13.3 percent in July.

KOSOVO — The Balkan nation is one of the poorest in Europe, and not a member of the OECD club. With stagnant growth, its unemployment rate was 46.3 percent in 2007, according to the International Labor Organization. That may include the so-called "gray economy," in which people are paid under the table.

JAPAN — Japan's unemployment rate actually dipped to 5.5 percent in August after reaching 5.7 percent in July, the highest level in Japan's post-World War II era, amid mounting job and wage cuts. Still, the total number of jobless in August rose 32.7 percent from a year earlier to 3.61 million. The number of temporary workers has surged in recent years, reaching around a third of the work force in the world's No. 2 economy. The plight of these workers, who with little job security have born the brunt of the recession, has stirred emotions in Japan.

CHINA — The official urban unemployment rate was 4.3 percent for the three months ended June 30 but the actual level could be more than double that because the government system ignores millions of migrant workers and employees who are furloughed by state companies but not recorded as laid off. As of June 30, there were 9 million registered unemployed people in an urban work force of 210 million, according to a spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Yin Chengji.

As many as 30 million migrants are believed to have lost jobs in export-oriented factories in late 2008, government officials said. Some are believed to have found work on construction projects financed by Beijing's stimulus but no figures have been reported.

INDIA — The picture is even less clear in India where the government does an official employment survey only about once every five years. Ninety percent of the work force is in the so-called informal sector.

MEXICO — Mexico's unemployment rate rose to 6.28 percent in August, the highest rate in more than 13 years, according to The National Statistics Institute. The jobless rate among the country's roughly 45 million workers was up from 4.2 percent in August 2008. President Felipe Calderon has announced reforms to ease red tape and lower costs for investors in public works projects to foster job growth. The government also started paying one-third of the salaries of automotive workers to curb layoffs at the plants.

BRAZIL — Unemployment in Brazil reached 8.1 percent in August, remaining stable over the last two months. The figure shows a drop in the jobless rate from its peak of 9 percent in March. Brazil emerged from recession in the second quarter of this year and analysts are now predicting the economy will expand slightly in 2009.

SOUTH AFRICA — The unemployment rate in South Africa hovered at 23.6 percent in this year's second quarter, according to the country's statistics office. That was up slightly from 23.1 percent in the April-June quarter of 2008, as South Africa is mired in its first recession since 1992.

The African continent as a whole was initially unscathed by the financial turmoil that roiled Europe and the United States. But the collapse of Western consumer demand has meant Africans are selling less of the commodities on which many of their economies depend.

No we can't? UK think tank says US power is fading

In the September 15, 2009 article "No we can't? UK think tank says US power is fading," Associated Press writer Raphael G. Satter reports:

LONDON – A weakened United States could start retreating from the world stage without help from its allies abroad, an international strategic affairs think tank said Tuesday.

The respected London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said President Barack Obama will increasingly have to turn to others for help dealing with the world's problems — in part because he has no alternative.

"Domestically Obama may have campaigned on the theme 'yes we can'; internationally he may increasingly have to argue 'no we can't'," the institute said in its annual review of world affairs.

The report said the U.S. struggles against insurgent groups in Iraq and Afghanistan had exposed the limits of the country's military muscle, while the near-collapse of the world financial markets sapped the economic base on which that muscle relied.
The report also claimed that the U.S. had lost traction in its efforts to contain Iran's nuclear program and bring peace to the Middle East.

"Clearly the U.S. share of 'global power,' however measured, is in decline," the report said.

The head of another respected London think tank, Robin Niblett of Chatham House, said the rise in the relative power of China, India, Russia and the European Union has made it harder for the U.S. to exercise its influence.

"America should apply changes in leadership style, but I wouldn't overplay the decline because decline is relative," said Niblett — who was not involved in drawing up Tuesday's report. "One should not doubt that the U.S. remains the most powerful nation in the world, but it's difficult to use the power and to use it to influence others."

In addition to a rise in regional powers, Niblett said the U.S. has long been viewed as being part of the problem rather than the solution on many issues — including climate change, the financial crisis, and the failure of the Middle East peace process.
"It's also carrying the baggage of failed policies and of a failed financial approach," Niblett said, referring to the Bush administration. "There's a lot of catching up to be done."

The IISS report praised Obama, saying that he recognized there was only so much America could do "to impose its views on others."

After years of often thorny relationships between the U.S. and its allies during Bush's administration, Obama has talked of the need to work with other nations on such issues as the financial meltdown, climate change and nuclear proliferation.
"These are challenges that no single nation, no matter how powerful, can confront alone," Obama said in April after attending the G-20 summit in London.

"The United States must lead the way," he said. "But our best chance to solve these unprecedented problems comes from acting in concert with other nations."

The think tank's report said Obama could help restore the United States' standing by working with other nations to contain emerging threats to its position as the world's pre-eminent power. Controlling the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea would require help from regional allies, the report said. The same was true of Afghanistan, where the U.S. has had difficulty persuading its NATO partners to follow its lead in boosting the number of troops sent to fight a resurgent Taliban.

"In the next year or two, the greatest demand on U.S. talents and power will be to persuade more to become like minded and adopt greater burdens," the report said.

Niblett said Obama was moving in the right direction.

"This administration is far more frank about the U.S. interdependence with rest of the world, and that's a good thing," Niblett said.
___

Tariff on Tires to Cost Consumers

In the September 14, 2009 Wall Street Journal article "Tariff on Tires to Cost Consumers," Timothy Aeppel reports on a trade war between the U.S. and China in the market for tires:

Consumers who buy low-price Chinese tires — the bulk of the tires China exports to the U.S. — will be hit hardest by the new tariff, as shortages in this market segment cause retailers to scramble to find alternative sources in other countries.

The tariffs, which apply to all Chinese tires, will cut off much of the flow of the more than 46 million Chinese tires that came to the U.S. last year, nearly 17% of all tires sold in the country.

The low end of the market will feel the impact of the tariff most, as U.S. manufacturers, who joined the Chinese in opposing the tariffs, have said it isn't profitable to produce inexpensive tires in domestic plants.

"I think within the next 60 days you'll see some pretty significant price increases," said Jim Mayfield, president of Del-Nat Tire Corp. of Memphis, Tenn., a large importer and distributor of Chinese tires. He estimates prices for "entry-level" tires could increase 20% to 30%.

Low-end tires cost roughly $50 to $60 apiece, while premium tires can sell for $200 to $250.

It will take many months for producers in places like Indonesia and Brazil to pick up the slack. And any tire manufacturer that wants to get involved in the low-end business would have to revamp factory lines to produce the sizes and types of tires favored by U.S. consumers, a costly and complicated process.

There could also be shortages, Mr. Mayfield said, as existing supplies run low and importers have trouble finding alternative sources. Many importers stopped placing orders for Chinese tires several weeks ago, fearing they might end up ordering tires that would carry a hefty tariff by the time they arrived in U.S. ports.

The tariffs won't just hit Chinese producers. Both of the U.S.'s remaining domestic manufacturers — Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. — make tires in China that they sell in the U.S. Cooper this year is on track to import 2.5 million tires that it made in China. It was planning to boost that to four million next year.

Most of the tires coming from China are sold under private-label names and little-known discount brands. Many of these tires are sold through large retailers and national auto chains.

While China mainly exports tires at the low end of the market, it does export tires at all price points, said Robert Purcell, chief executive officer of Purcell Tire & Rubber Co. in Potosi, Mo., which has 70 outlets selling retail and commercial tires. He said Chinese producers appear to be steadily moving toward selling higher-price tires as they and foreign companies invest in new technology in China.

Rod Lache, an industry analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, said the tariff is hitting at a difficult moment, which could compound turbulence in the marketplace. Inventories are low, he said, as companies have reduced stocks in the face of the recession.

Meanwhile, a massive reduction in capacity is taking place. In 2005, North America had the capacity to produce 370 million tires. Today, that number has been cut by more than 40 million — and a further 35 million are in the process of being eliminated.

"And now demand is starting to creep back up," Mr. Lache said.

Write to Timothy Aeppel at timothy.aeppel@wsj.com

Mercantilism

The main goal of mercantilism was to increase the money in a country’s treasury by creating a favorable balance of trade. A country had a favorable balance of trade if it had more exports than imports. Colonies helped a country have the goods to maintain a favorable balance of trade. For example, say Spain sold $500 in sugar to France, and France sold $300 in cloth to Spain. France would also have to pay Spain $200 worth of precious metals to pay for all the sugar. Spain would then have a favorable balance of trade because the value of its exports (sugar) was greater than the value of its imports (cloth). Spain would become richer because of the precious metals it received from France.


Colonies helped nations grow rich in several ways. Colonies provided various raw materials as well as mines that produced gold and silver. In addition, colonies served as markets for goods made in the home country.

Source: http://mrthompson.org/text/2-1%20Spain%20Claims%20an%20Empire.htm

Global Arcade

Global Arcade is the family fun center where you can play arcade games and learn about globalization and what is happening to people around the world.

Inside, you'll find Shockwave games and quizzes, message areas to talk about global issues, stories and interviews on globalization, and links to many more organizations and resources for information and action.

A New Path for Japan

A New Path for Japan

August 27, 2009
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
A New Path for Japan

By YUKIO HATOYAMA

TOKYO — In the post-Cold War period, Japan has been continually buffeted by the winds of market fundamentalism in a U.S.-led movement that is more usually called globalization. In the fundamentalist pursuit of capitalism people are treated not as an end but as a means. Consequently, human dignity is lost.

How can we put an end to unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism, that are void of morals or moderation, in order to protect the finances and livelihoods of our citizens? That is the issue we are now facing.

In these times, we must return to the idea of fraternity — as in the French slogan “liberté, égalité, fraternité” — as a force for moderating the danger inherent within freedom.

Fraternity as I mean it can be described as a principle that aims to adjust to the excesses of the current globalized brand of capitalism and accommodate the local economic practices that have been fostered through our traditions.

The recent economic crisis resulted from a way of thinking based on the idea that American-style free-market economics represents a universal and ideal economic order, and that all countries should modify the traditions and regulations governing their economies in line with global (or rather American) standards.

In Japan, opinion was divided on how far the trend toward globalization should go. Some advocated the active embrace of globalism and leaving everything up to the dictates of the market. Others favored a more reticent approach, believing that efforts should be made to expand the social safety net and protect our traditional economic activities. Since the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), the Liberal Democratic Party has stressed the former, while we in the Democratic Party of Japan have tended toward the latter position.

The economic order in any country is built up over long years and reflects the influence of traditions, habits and national lifestyles. But globalism has progressed without any regard for non-economic values, or for environmental issues or problems of resource restriction.

If we look back on the changes in Japanese society since the end of the Cold War, I believe it is no exaggeration to say that the global economy has damaged traditional economic activities and destroyed local communities.

In terms of market theory, people are simply personnel expenses. But in the real world people support the fabric of the local community and are the physical embodiment of its lifestyle, traditions and culture. An individual gains respect as a person by acquiring a job and a role within the local community and being able to maintain his family’s livelihood.

Under the principle of fraternity, we would not implement policies that leave areas relating to human lives and safety — such as agriculture, the environment and medicine — to the mercy of globalism.

Our responsibility as politicians is to refocus our attention on those non-economic values that have been thrown aside by the march of globalism. We must work on policies that regenerate the ties that bring people together, that take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child-rearing support, and that address wealth disparities.

Another national goal that emerges from the concept of fraternity is the creation of an East Asian community. Of course, the Japan-U.S. security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy.

But at the same time, we must not forget our identity as a nation located in Asia. I believe that the East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality, must be recognized as Japan’s basic sphere of being. So we must continue to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and security across the region.

The financial crisis has suggested to many that the era of U.S. unilateralism may come to an end. It has also raised doubts about the permanence of the dollar as the key global currency.

I also feel that as a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of U.S.-led globalism is coming to an end and that we are moving toward an era of multipolarity. But at present no one country is ready to replace the United States as the dominant country. Nor is there a currency ready to replace the dollar as the world’s key currency. Although the influence of the U.S. is declining, it will remain the world’s leading military and economic power for the next two to three decades.

Current developments show clearly that China will become one of the world’s leading economic nations while also continuing to expand its military power. The size of China’s economy will surpass that of Japan in the not-too-distant future.

How should Japan maintain its political and economic independence and protect its national interest when caught between the United States, which is fighting to retain its position as the world’s dominant power, and China, which is seeking ways to become dominant?

This is a question of concern not only to Japan but also to the small and medium-sized nations in Asia. They want the military power of the U.S. to function effectively for the stability of the region but want to restrain U.S. political and economic excesses. They also want to reduce the military threat posed by our neighbor China while ensuring that China’s expanding economy develops in an orderly fashion. These are major factors accelerating regional integration.

Today, as the supranational political and economic philosophies of Marxism and globalism have, for better or for worse, stagnated, nationalism is once again starting to have a major influence in various countries.

As we seek to build new structures for international cooperation, we must overcome excessive nationalism and go down a path toward rule-based economic cooperation and security.

Unlike Europe, the countries of this region differ in size, development stage and political system, so economic integration cannot be achieved over the short term. However, we should nonetheless aspire to move toward regional currency integration as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth begun by Japan, followed by South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong, and then achieved by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China. We must spare no effort to build the permanent security frameworks essential to underpinning currency integration.

Establishing a common Asian currency will likely take more than 10 years. For such a single currency to bring about political integration will surely take longer still.

ASEAN, Japan, China (including Hong Kong), South Korea and Taiwan now account for one quarter of the world’s gross domestic product. The economic power of the East Asian region and the interdependent relationships within the region have grown wider and deeper. So the structures required for the formation of a regional economic bloc are already in place.

On the other hand, due to historical and cultural conflicts as well as conflicting national security interests, we must recognize that there are numerous difficult political issues. The problems of increased militarization and territorial disputes cannot be resolved by bilateral negotiations between, for example, Japan and South Korea, or Japan and China. The more these problems are discussed bilaterally, the greater the risk that emotions become inflamed and nationalism intensified.

Therefore, I would suggest, somewhat paradoxically, that the issues that stand in the way of regional integration can only be truly resolved by moving toward greater integration. The experience of the E.U. shows us how regional integration can defuse territorial disputes.

I believe that regional integration and collective security is the path we should follow toward realizing the principles of pacifism and multilateral cooperation advocated by the Japanese Constitution. It is also the appropriate path for protecting Japan’s political and economic independence and pursuing our interests in our position between the United States and China.

Let me conclude by quoting the words of Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, founder of the first popular movement for a united Europe, written 85 years ago in “Pan-Europa” (my grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, translated his book, “The Totalitarian State Against Man,” into Japanese): “All great historical ideas started as a utopian dream and ended with reality. Whether a particular idea remains as a utopian dream or becomes a reality depends on the number of people who believe in the ideal and their ability to act upon it.”

Yukio Hatoyama heads the Democratic Party of Japan, and would become prime minister should the party win in Sunday’s elections. A longer version of this article appears in the September issue of the monthly Japanese journal Voice.

Japan must shake off US-style globalization

"Japan must shake off US-style globalization" is an excerpt from an article by Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan.

Tokyo – In the post-cold war period, Japan has been continually buffeted by the winds of market fundamentalism in a US-led movement that is more usually called globalization. Freedom is supposed to be the highest of all values, but in the fundamentalist pursuit of capitalism people are treated not as an end but as a means. Consequently, human dignity has been lost.

The recent financial crisis and its aftermath have once again forced us to take note of this reality. How can we put an end to unrestrained market fundamentalism and financial capitalism that are void of morals or moderation in order to protect the finances and livelihoods of our citizens? That is the issue we are now facing.

In these times, we must return to the idea of fraternity – as in the French slogan "liberté, égalité, fraternité" – as a force for moderating the danger inherent within freedom. It must be the compass that determines our political direction, a yardstick for deciding our policies. The idea of fraternity is also the spirit behind our idea of achieving "an era of independence and coexistence" in today's world.

Fraternity as I mean it can be described as a principle that aims to adjust to the excesses of the current globalized brand of capitalism and accommodate the local economic practices that have been fostered through our traditions.

The recent worldwide economic crisis resulted from a way of thinking based on the principle that American-style free-market economics represents a universal and ideal economic order – and that all countries should modify the traditions and regulations governing their own economy in order to reform the structure of their economic society in line with global standards (or rather American standards).

In Japan, opinion was divided on how far the trend toward globalization should go. Some people advocated the active embrace of globalism and supported leaving everything up to the dictates of the market. Others favored a more reticent approach, believing that effort should be made instead to expand the social safety net and protect our traditional economic activities. Since the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006), the Liberal Democratic Party has stressed the former while we in the Democratic Party of Japan have tended toward the latter position.

(For context on Japan's election August 30, read: Briefing: Why power may shift in Japan)

The economic order or local economic activities in any country are built up over long years and reflect the influence of each country's traditions, habits, and national lifestyles. However, globalism progressed without any regard for various non-economic values, nor for environmental issues or problems of resource restriction. If we look back on the changes in Japanese society that have occurred since the end of the cold war, I believe it is no exaggeration to say that the global economy has damaged traditional economic activities and destroyed local communities.

Capital and means of production can now be transferred easily across international borders. However, people cannot move so easily. In terms of market theory, people are simply personnel expenses, but in the real world people support the fabric of the local community and are the physical embodiment of its lifestyle, traditions, and culture. An individual gains respect as a person by acquiring a job and a role within the local community and being able to maintain his family's livelihood.

Under the principle of fraternity, we would not implement policies that leave economic activities in areas relating to human lives and safety, such as agriculture, the environment and medicine, to the mercy of the tides of globalism.

Our responsibility as politicians is to refocus our attention on those non-economic values that have been thrown aside by the march of globalism. We must work on policies that regenerate the ties that bring people together, that take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child rearing support, and that address wealth disparities. This is required in order to create an environment in which each individual citizen is able to pursue happiness.

Overcoming nationalism through an East Asian community

Another national goal that emerges from the concept of fraternity is the creation of an East Asian community. Off course, the Japan-US security pact will continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy. Unquestionably, the Japan-US relationship is an important pillar of our diplomacy. However, at the same time, we must not forget our identity as a nation located in Asia. I believe that the East Asian region, which is showing increasing vitality in its economic growth and even closer mutual ties, must be recognized as Japan's basic sphere of being. Therefore, we must continue to make efforts to build frameworks for stable economic cooperation and national security across the region.

The recent financial crisis has suggested to many people that the era of American unilateralism may come to an end. It has also made people harbor doubts about the permanence of the dollar as the key global currency. I also feel that as a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of US-led globalism is coming to an end and that we are moving away from a unipolar world toward an era of multipolarity.

However, at present, there is no one country ready to replace the United States as the world's most dominant country. Neither is there a currency ready to replace the dollar as the world's key currency.

Although the influence of the US is declining, it will remain the world's leading military and economic power for the next two to three decades. Current developments show clearly that China, which has by far the world's largest population, will become one of the world's leading economic nations, while also continuing to expand its military power.

The size of China's economy will surpass that of Japan in the not-too-distant future. How should Japan maintain its political and economic independence and protect its national interest when caught between the United States, which is fighting to retain its position as the world's dominant power, and China, which is seeking ways to become dominant?

This is a question of concern not only to Japan but also to the small and medium-sized nations in Asia. They want the military power of the US to function effectively for the stability of the region but want to restrain US political and economic excesses. They also want to reduce the military threat posed by our neighbor China while ensuring that China's expanding economy develops in an orderly fashion. These are major factors accelerating regional integration.

Today, as the supranational political and economic philosophies of Marxism and globalism have, for better or for worse, stagnated, nationalism is once again starting to have a major influence on policymaking decisions in various countries. As symbolized by the anti-Japanese riots that occurred in China a few years ago, the spread of the Internet has accelerated the integration of nationalism and populism, and the emergence of uncontrollable political turbulence is a very real risk.

As we maintain an awareness of this environment and seek to build new structures for international cooperation, we must overcome excessive nationalism and go down a path toward rule-based economic cooperation and security.

Unlike Europe, the countries of this region differ in their population sizes, development stages and political systems, and therefore economic integration cannot be achieved over the short term.

However, we should nonetheless aspire to move toward regional currency integration as a natural extension of the rapid economic growth begun by Japan, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, and then achieved by the ASEAN nations and China. We must therefore spare no effort to build the permanent security frameworks essential to underpinning currency integration.

Establishing a common Asian currency will likely take more than 10 years. For such a single currency to bring about political integration will surely take longer still.

ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Japan, China (including Hong Kong), South Korea, and Taiwan now account for one quarter of the world's gross domestic product. The economic power of the East Asian region and the interdependent relationships within the region have grown wider and deeper, which is unprecedented. As such, the underlying structures required for the formation of a regional economic bloc are already in place.

On the other hand, due to the historical and cultural conflicts existing between the countries of this region, in addition to their conflicting national security interests, we must recognize that there are numerous difficult political issues. The problems of increased militarization and territorial disputes cannot be resolved by bilateral negotiations between, for example, Japan and South Korea, or Japan and China. The more these problems are discussed bilaterally, the greater the risk that citizens' emotions in each country will become inflamed and nationalism will be intensified.

Therefore, somewhat paradoxically, I would suggest that the issues that stand in the way of regional integration can only really be resolved through the process of moving toward greater regional integration. The experience of the European Union shows us how regional integration can defuse territorial disputes.

I believe that integration and collective security in the Asia-Pacific region is the path we should follow toward realizing the principles of pacifism and multilateral cooperation advocated by the Japanese constitution. It is also the appropriate path for protecting Japan's political and economic independence and pursuing our national interest from our position between two of the world's great powers, the United States and China.

We are currently standing at a turning point in global history, and therefore our resolve and vision are being tested.

Let me conclude by quoting the words of Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, the father of the European Union, written 85 years ago, when he published "Pan-Europa." (My grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, translated his book "The Totalitarian State Against Man" into Japanese.)

"All great historical ideas started as a utopian dream and ended with reality."

"Whether a particular idea remains as a utopian dream or becomes a reality depends on the number of people who believe in the ideal and their ability to act upon it."

Yukio Hatoyama heads the Democratic Party of Japan. This is an abridged version of an article entitled "My Political Philosophy" in the September issue of the monthly Japanese journal "Voice." © Voice/Global Viewpoint Network. Distributed by Tribune Media Services.